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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still